The ideas I’m about to discuss are not new. In fact, perhaps the best expression of the core idea happened over 2,000 years ago, in 23 BC, when Horace wrote (in Odes 1.11): “carpe diem.” Everyone knows the meaning of that phrase—”seize the day.” What most people don’t know, however, is the full line: “carpe diem, quam minimum credula postero” (“seize the day, put as little trust in the future as possible”). You can’t beat carpe diem for succinctness, but I think the second part of the line really drives the point home. And it’s a perfect synopsis of what I’ve come to call “the fallacy of the future.”

I call it “the fallacy of the future” because I think it sounds good. Technically speaking, using the term “fallacy” is not exactly the most accurate choice of wording. What would be better would be to say “the risk of the future,” or “the uncertain existence of the future.” But those don’t sound as good, so I’m sticking with “the fallacy of the future.” What’s important is the fundamental concept: Tomorrow is not guaranteed for anyone.

That notion is another one of “those things” that I mentioned in my previous post (“On driving“)—those things that people tend to discount or disregard because they are unpleasant to think about. Unfortunately, the consequence of not thinking about the uncertainty of everyone’s future tends to be a failure to act on it—a failure to seize the day. We want to do so many things—get back in touch with an old friend, take up a new hobby, travel abroad—but when it comes to actually doing them, we think, “Oh, well, I’m too tired,” or “I have to run these errands…but there’s always tomorrow” or “this weekend” or “next month” or whenever we convince ourselves we’ll do it. I’m not saying that I don’t do this; I do it too. I’m also not saying that all people are this way. But I do know that I’m not alone.

Of course, the problem with saying that “there’s always tomorrow” is that, well, there isn’t always tomorrow. Naturally we hope that there is a long and bright future ahead for ourselves and our loved ones, but the problem is when we allow that hope to ferment into belief in the idea that “there’s always tomorrow.” Instead, we should “quam minimum credula postero“…put as little trust in the future as possible! I think Robin Williams (whose death last year at age 63 was a perfect example of the uncertainty of the future) said it brilliantly as John Keating in this beautiful clip from Dead Poets Society.

Now, carpe diem is a lovely adage, but I have also wondered if there might be any psychological phenomenon behind “the fallacy of the future.” I have done some searching but haven’t turned up anything promising so far. The closest thing I found was optimism bias, or (as Wikipedia states) a person’s tendency to believe “that they are less at risk of experiencing a negative event compared to others.” Then, just last week, Derek (the owner of a YouTube channel called Veritasium) published an incredibly insightful video called “Would You Take This Bet?“. I highly recommend watching the video and contemplating how much money it would take for you to accept the bet he proposes. During the video, Derek explains the bet as a metaphor for life, and I thought the way he explained the metaphor was simply fantastic. He says:

“[The bet construct] is a metaphor for all the little risks and opportunities that come our way in our lives. I mean, if you view each one as an independent event, you will often say no even to very good bets because you are afraid of the loss. So if, instead, you can see each little bet as one of a series of bets, then you realize that if you take that bet every time, you may win and you may lose, but overall—on the aggregate—you will come out ahead.”

Sounds to me like a good reason to seize the day!